Pulse Poll: How a simple proportional government emerges and the scenarios for the second round


The scenarios that “bring out” a government, either in the first round of the simple proportional, or in the second round that will be done with the – slightly – enhanced proportional, Pulse tried to investigate, in the second part of its poll that was presented in the main bulletin of SKAI .

To study the various seat distribution scenarios, the company proceeded with a proportional distribution of undecideds, giving 37% to New Democracy, 28.5% to SYRIZA, 12% to PASOK, 6.5% to KKE and 4.5% to “Greek Solution”. Because the distribution of undecideds marginally puts both MeRA25 and the “Kassidiari party” out of Parliament, Pulse also examines the hypothetical case where one or both finally enter Parliament.

The only possibility is the cooperation of ND – PASOK

In the first case – the five-party Parliament and the parliamentary parties with the above percentages of the vote estimation, then the only political possibility to form a government is ND – SYRIZA, with 166 MPs. In the second case – the six-party Parliament – then the two parties could form a government with 160 MPs. In the third case – with two small parties in Parliament – ND and PASOK could form a government with 156 MPs.

According to the data of Pulse, SYRIZA and PASOK cannot secure the declared even in the case of the five-party Parliament – they will have only 138 deputies in case of cooperation.

Theoretical investigation of b! round

Pulse also conducts a theoretical investigation into the possibility of ND self-reliance in the second round – despite the fact that it is reasonable to expect that the percentages (especially of the two largest parties) are predicted to be high. According to the results of the company’s study, New Democracy gains marginal autonomy, with 151 MPs, in the event that the parties that will be left out of Parliament reach a percentage of 11.5%. On the contrary, if 8.5% remain outside the Parliament, with the entry of one of the smaller parties – then the ND “gets” 148 seats.





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