A derailment should not be considered improbable if in the development of the pre-election period things do not go for Tayyip Erdoğan as he wants and plans, given the great stress of re-election and crushing his political opponents.
In the last few weeks and what haven’t we heard in Greece from the president of the neighboring country himself about the crazy Turks, how many times has Erdogan himself threatened to put his army on the Greek islands overnight suddenly. Who forgets Erdogan’s threats that Turkish missiles can hit Athens?
How much worse can things get between Athens and Ankara? Are we just dealing with… a barking dog that according to popular wisdom is not to be feared, or is there a secret business plan by the Turks to take advantage of the slackness of the pre-election period to create fait accompli?
Erdogan is unlikely to stop his rhetorical threats against Greece. And this… paraphilology is only likely to increase the tension.
If in Turkey the elections are finalized for May 14th and in Greece the first polls are set for April 9th and therefore the second electoral contest is for the end of May, there is a difficult period of 40-50 days when a phase can become… cringe. Greece will have a caretaker government and who can rule out a pre-planned Turkish provocation to cause some sort of accident? If there is no new government, affairs will be called upon to be managed by a caretaker government. And who knows whether Erdogan will be tempted to make a move that provokes Greece, which may respond instinctively under the pressure of public opinion, with the risk that the moves will not be considered and planned.
We have proven with evidence in the past that internal pressure in Turkey or even in Greece can lead things to explosive situations. And it matters who will be responsible for the decisions, who will be his advisers, how things will develop in the Aegean, which for a long time seems stormy.
Will friends and allies help to keep the situation from getting out of hand in case Turkey implements some plan to provoke an artificial crisis that has been prepared in some staff? Or is it finally legal to provoke some manufactured crisis between Greece and Turkey in order to resolve the differences in a diplomatic way, that is, with negotiations at a time that completes 100 years since the signing of the Treaty of Lausanne?